Travel Tip - An Analysis of Updates to the American Airlines AAdvantage Program - Miles and Status

Location: Home

American Airlines recently announced changes to the way that their AAdvantage program will work in the second half of 2016. As a frequent flyer on American, I have been worried for a while about this type of change. I wanted to better understand how the changes will affect me, so I ran some numbers.

This analysis will focus on earned miles and status.  Later on I may write another analysis based on changes to awards travel.

Summary of Impact on Me

The impact on me is somewhat negative, but not too bad. Here is my projection of the impact based on a full year of the new rules.

• Qualification for Elite Status: no change
• Systemwide Upgrades: loss of 2-4
• Awards Miles Earned: 22% less

My Travel Profile

The changes will affect different travelers in different ways, so it would be good to understand my travel profile.

• Consistent  (2012-2016) Executive Platinum (EP) traveler.
• My trips are typically planned in advance, so my tickets are usually discounted.
• I do not buy First or Business Class tickets.  I occasionally buy premium coach for international flights on carriers that have that option.

 2015 Specifics:

• 30 itineraries booked
• Carrier: 
• 25 booked on AA, which includes US Airways and code share flights
• 5 booked on OneWorld partners
• Region:
• 17 domestic
• 13 international
• 87 segments
• 150,000 Elite Qualifying Miles (EQMs) earned
• 1730 miles/segment average 
• 389,863 total award miles earned 
• 304,588 award miles earned from flights only (excluding hotels, misc. bonuses, etc.)

Elite Qualification

I tend to fly relatively long segments, so I qualify on miles rather than segments or the now disappearing points.

Net change for me: None.

Systemwide Upgrades

One of the big benefits of qualifying for EP status is the 8 systemwide upgrades granted per year. These are good for all the segments of one part of a journey, including international flights.  They can also be used for others, so they are very valuable.

In the new plan, EPs will earn 4 systemwide upgrades at the 100,000 EQM level, with the opportunity to earn 2 more at the 150,000 EQM level and a final 2 more at 200,000 EQMs.

In 2015 I will earn 150,000 EQMs, which means a total of 6 systemwide upgrades.

In 2012-2014 I earned 101,000 to 129,000 EQMs, which would be 4 systemwide upgrades.

Net change for me: Loss of 2 to 4 systemwide upgrades

Award Miles

This is the area of biggest change.  In the past EPs earned awards miles equal to the twice the actual distance traveled. AA is now moving to a plan where the award miles earned depend on the amount paid for the ticket.  At the EP level this amounts to 11 miles per dollar spent.

Here are some examples of the current rules versus the new rules.

Itinerary	2015 Rules	2016 Rules	Notes
RDU/DFW Roundtrip	1,062 miles each way 2,124 total miles 2,124 bonus miles 4,248 award miles	$432.20 total $56.38 taxes $375.82 fare 4,134 award miles	Wash
RDU/SJC Roundtrip	5,047 total miles 5,047 bonus miles 10,094 award miles	$437.20 total $72.55 taxes $364.65 fare 4,011 award miles	Reduction of miles in 2016
RDU/LHR Roundtrip	3,872 miles each way 7,744 total miles 7,744 bonus miles 15,488 award miles	$1976.00 total $693.00 taxes and fees $1679.60 fare+fees (est.) 18,476 award miles	Increase of miles in 2016

I wanted to get a better view of the total effect of the changes over the course of a year.  I did an analysis based on my 2015 travel and spending.  The monthly breakdown is shown in the table below.

Notes:

• The award miles earned in 2016 will be based on spending for airfare and carrier-imposed fees. It does not include taxes. This makes the calculation tricky because AA does not always break out the taxes separately, especially for international travel. Based on some quick research, I used 15% as an estimate of the taxes for where the taxes were not specified. Note that this figure has a big impact on earned miles.
• AA has not yet specified the formula for award miles on OneWorld partner airlines.  For this analysis I used the same formula as for flights on AA.

Month	2015 Rules (actual)	2H2016  Rules  (est.)	Notes
February	24,079	13,423	Long discount flights will earn a lot less miles
March	40,899	36,961
April	2,000	0	I assigned the award miles for the initial flight
May	36,182	23,266
June	32,778	36,961
July	10,180	11,432
August	15,512	13,151
September	13,988	10,082
October	8,726	3,551
November	51,886	48,672	Long international flights on Cathay and BA in premium coach
December	47,324	13,903	Long international discount flights on AA
January	21,034	24,927
Total	304,588	236,273	68,315 fewer award miles or 22% less in 2016

Net change for me: 68,315 fewer award miles, or a 22% reduction

Note that February, May and December accounted for 80% of the awards mileage reduction. These months included long trips bought at a low fare.

Closing Thoughts

AA says that the changes are aimed at "giving our best customers access to our most exclusive benefits." Anybody who buys business or first class tickets falls into that category, and they will see big benefits.  As a very frugal traveler I will see some reduction in awards miles and systemwide upgrades.  Even so, I think that the AAdvantage program will remain beneficial for me overall.